Hawaii County climate forecast August 11, 2021

Hilo

Rest of the day: Showers in the morning, then partly sunny with a few showers in the afternoon. Heavy rains locally possible in the mornings. Altitudes around 82 near shore to 67 to 73 at 4000 feet. East wind up to 10 km / h. Probability of rain close to 100 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening, then isolated showers after midnight. Lows of about 69 near shore to about 55 to 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 10 miles per hour. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Thursday: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Heights from 84 near shore to 69 to 74 at 4000 feet. Northeasterly winds of 10 to 15 miles per hour. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Kona

Rest of the day: Mostly sunny with a few showers in the morning, then partly sunny with a few showers in the afternoon. In the afternoon, heavy rainfall is possible locally. Highs from 82 to 88 near shore to about 69 near 5000 feet. In the afternoon a light wind from the west blows up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with a few showers in the evening, then partly cloudy with a few showers after midnight. Lows of 70 to 75 near shore to about 56 near 5000 feet. Breeze. Chance of rain 40 percent.

THE ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW THE ADVERT

Thursday: Sunny in the morning, mostly cloudy in the afternoon with a few showers. Highs from 82 to 87 near shore to about 69 near 5000 feet. Breeze. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Waimea

THE ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW THE ADVERT

Rest of the day: Mostly cloudy with showers in the morning, then mostly sunny with a few showers in the afternoon. Heavy rains locally possible in the mornings. Altitudes around 82 near shore to 70 to 80 near 3000 feet. East wind up to 15 km / h. Chance of rain 90 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening, then isolated showers after midnight. Lows of 69 near shore to 57 to 63 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph, rising to 10 to 24 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Thursday: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Heights from 82 near shore to 69 to 79 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 miles per hour. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Kohala

THE ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW THE ADVERT

Rest of the day: Mostly cloudy with showers in the morning, then mostly sunny with a few showers in the afternoon. Heavy rains locally possible in the mornings. Altitudes around 82 near shore to 70 to 80 near 3000 feet. East wind up to 15 km / h. Chance of rain 90 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening, then isolated showers after midnight. Lows of 69 near shore to 57 to 63 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph, rising to 10 to 24 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Thursday: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Heights from 82 near shore to 69 to 79 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 miles per hour. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Southern big island

Rest of the day: Mostly sunny with a few showers in the morning, then partly sunny with a few showers in the afternoon. In the afternoon, heavy rainfall is possible locally. Highs from 85 near shore to about 69 near 5000 feet. East wind up to 15 km / h. 50 percent chance of rain.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with a few showers in the evening, then partly cloudy with a few showers after midnight. Lows of 71 near shore to about 54 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph, rising to 10 to 24 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Thursday: Sunny in the morning, partly sunny in the afternoon with a few showers. Highs from 86 near shore to 73 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 miles per hour. Chance of rain 20 percent.

feedback

Rest of the day: Showers in the morning, then partly sunny with a few showers in the afternoon. Heavy rains locally possible in the mornings. Altitudes around 82 near shore to 67 to 73 at 4000 feet. East wind up to 10 km / h. Probability of rain close to 100 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening, then isolated showers after midnight. Lows of about 69 near shore to about 55 to 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 10 miles per hour. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Thursday: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Heights from 84 near shore to 69 to 74 at 4000 feet. Northeasterly winds of 10 to 15 miles per hour. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Waikoloa

Remaining day: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. In the afternoon, heavy rainfall is possible locally. Altitudes from 87 near shore to 68 to 74 over 4000 feet. Northwest winds up to 15 miles per hour. 50 percent chance of rain.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows of 73 near shore to 52 to 59 over 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 10 miles per hour. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday: Mostly sunny. A few showers in the afternoon. Altitudes from 87 near shore to 70 to 76 over 4000 feet. North winds up to 10 km / h. Chance of rain 20 percent.

summary

A surface high pressure system centered northeast of the islands will maintain trade winds over the area until early next week. Trade is light to moderate right now, but a boost on local strength will come this Friday and will last through Saturday night as the high shifts closer to the islands. A gradual weakening of trades will follow until Monday when a surface trough approaches the islands from the east. Upper tier disruption accompanying lower tier functioning will help add to some of Monday’s showers.

discussion

There is a light to moderate trade wind on the main Hawaiian islands this morning. The 1032 MB high surface elevation is well over 1500 miles northeast of the islands, which is responsible for the weakness of trade flows at this distance. But that high will move closer to the islands over the next 48 hours, where we expect trades to pick up sharply locally through Friday and continue through Saturday. A gradual weakening of trades follows Monday as a surface trough cuts through the islands. The surface gully is supported with the help of an upper disturbance that amplifies some of the showers.
There is currently a tropical air mass over the islands, but off Cape Kumukahi Big Island there is an area with clouds and showers. It looks like this increased moisture area is affecting the Big Island and will overflow to windward Maui and possibly windward Molokai later this morning. The possibility is mentioned that some of these showers will be heavy for the Big Island. For the northern part of the Big Island, a certain thinning and dissolution of this moisture field is expected starting this afternoon.
The weakness of the trades will result in a mix of trades and ocean breezes, with ocean breezes developing over the west and leeward sides of the islands west of Maui after sunrise. The additional daytime heating will result in some local clouds and showers in the afternoon.
This tropical air mass will be replaced by a drier and more stable air mass until Thursday into the weekend. We more or less expect a trade wind shower pattern to continue, albeit on the drier than normal side of the spectrum.
On Monday, a low accompanied by an upper level fault could migrate across the islands from the east. The low will weaken the trades, while the disruption of the high will help add to the showers.

aviation

Light to moderate easterly trade winds will persist throughout the period with clouds and showers favoring windward and mauka locations. A series of low clouds associated with a weak valley moving from the east will support periods of MVFR CIGS / VSBYS in the morning hours (eastern end of the island chain) today. As a result, Mountain Darkening AIRMET Sierra will likely continue from Molokai to the Big Island this morning.

marine

A surface high pressure system high in the northeast of the state will maintain moderate trade flows through Thursday. A new surface high pressure system is expected to emerge north of the islands when we go into the weekend. The latest forecast suggests that locally strong trade winds could return from Friday, with Small Craft Advisory (SCA) conditions likely to develop in the normally windier waters next to the islands of Maui County and Big Island. The SCA may be required through Saturday for these windier areas, followed by weaker trades from Sunday.
The most recent observations of the offshore PacIOOS buoys show a swell height of 3 to 4 feet with a duration of about 15 seconds due to the current south-southwest swell. This swell, which maintains slightly increased surf on the south-facing banks, is expected to peak later today and then gradually decline from tonight through Thursday. A small, strengthening south-southwest swell is expected on Friday, followed by a larger swell from the same direction on Sunday. The latter swell is likely to last for a long time, with a peak Tuesday through Wednesday next week.
Active tropical cyclone activity in the northwest Pacific has sent small, consecutive west-northwest wave energy toward the region. The PacIOOS buoy at Hanalei is showing a small west-northwest swell of about 2 feet with a period of about 14 seconds this morning. This will cause the surf to rise along exposed north and west coasts today. That swell could subside by Thursday morning, with another small, aggravating west-northwest swell reaching Kauai late Thursday. A slightly larger west-northwest swell could arrive this weekend.
The surf along the east-facing coasts will continue to decrease due to the lighter trade winds locally and upstream of the islands. A tiny short-lived northeast swell could hit this weekend, but surf is likely to stay low along the east-facing coastline until early next week.

HFO watches / warnings / notices

None.

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Data courtesy of NOAA.gov

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