Hawaii County climate forecast is April 16, 2021

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Photo credit: James Grenz

Hilo

Today: a few showers. Partly sunny, with a high of nearly 77. Calm wind blowing east-northeast in the afternoon 5 to 7 miles per hour. The risk of precipitation is 40%. New rainfall levels of less than a tenth of an inch are possible.

Tonight: a few showers. Mostly cloudy with a low of around 63. The northeast wind around 8 km / h becomes calm in the evening. The risk of precipitation is 40%. New rainfall levels of less than a tenth of an inch are possible.

Saturday: a few showers. Partly sunny, with a high of nearly 77. Calm wind blowing northeast at 6 miles an hour. The probability of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall levels of less than a tenth of an inch are possible.

Kona

Today: a few showers after noon. Sunny, with a high of almost 79. Calm wind blowing at 10 km / h to the southwest in the afternoon. The probability of precipitation is 20%.

Tonight: isolated showers before midnight. Partly cloudy, with a low of 61. The westerly wind of 8 km / h becomes calm in the evening. The probability of precipitation is 20%.

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Saturday: a few showers after noon. Sunny, with a high of almost 79. Calm wind blowing to the southwest at 8 km / h. The probability of precipitation is 20%.

Waimea

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Today: isolated showers. Mostly sunny, with a high of almost 74. The northeasterly wind at 6 miles per hour turns calm. The probability of precipitation is 20%.

Tonight: isolated showers. Partly cloudy with a low of 52. Light and changing winds. The probability of precipitation is 20%.

Saturday: a few showers, mostly after 7 a.m. Partly sunny with a high near 74. East-northeast winds 3 to 8 miles per hour. The probability of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall levels of less than a tenth of an inch are possible.

Kohala

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Today: a few showers, mainly after noon. Partly sunny with a high of nearly 70. Calm wind blowing 5 to 9 miles an hour west. The risk of precipitation is 40%. New rainfall levels of less than a tenth of an inch are possible.

Tonight: a few showers. Mostly cloudy with a low of around 45. Light and changing winds. The risk of precipitation is 40%. New rainfall levels of less than a tenth of an inch are possible.

Saturday: a few showers. Partly sunny with a high of almost 70. Light and changing winds. The risk of precipitation is 40%. New rainfall levels of less than a tenth of an inch are possible.

South Big Island

Today: Sunny, with a high of almost 75. East winds 9-14 miles per hour turning slightly east-southeast in the afternoon.

Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low of around 70. Calm wind blowing 5 to 7 miles per hour east-northeast in the evening.

Saturday: a few showers after noon. Sunny, with an altitude of almost 76. Breezy, with an easterly wind of 7 to 16 miles per hour, with gusts of up to 21 miles per hour. The probability of precipitation is 20%.

Feedback

Today: a few showers. Partly sunny, with a high of nearly 76. West winds at 6 miles per hour that become calm in the afternoon. The risk of precipitation is 40%. New rainfall levels of less than a tenth of an inch are possible.

Tonight: a few showers. Mostly cloudy with a low around 61. Light and changing winds. The risk of precipitation is 40%. New levels of rainfall between a tenth and a quarter of an inch are possible.

Saturday: a few showers. Partly sunny, with a high of nearly 76. Light and changing winds blowing northeast at 6 miles per hour in the morning. The probability of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall levels of less than a tenth of an inch are possible.

Waikoloa

Today: Sunny, with a high of nearly 80. Calm wind blowing west-southwest in the afternoon 5 to 9 miles per hour.

Tonight: Clear most of the time, with a low of 61. The west wind at 6 mph is calm.

Saturday: a few showers after noon. Mostly sunny, with a high of almost 80. The east-southeast wind at 6 miles per hour becomes light and changeable in the afternoon. The probability of precipitation is 20%.

Summary

Clouds associated with a scattered cold front move in from the northwest. The trade winds will decrease today as a slight increase in clouds and showers over the smaller islands is forecast until Saturday. The trade winds get stronger Saturday through Sunday and weaker Monday through Wednesday in a slight and variable pattern as another cold front approaches the islands from the northwest.

discussion

Bands of clouds associated with a dispersed cold front are drifting onto the islands from the north this morning. A larger area of ​​low pressure and a stronger cold front remain far north of the Hawaii region. A high pressure center is also located far northwest of the state with a weaker crest axis north of the islands.
Trade is weakening today as a localized sea breeze develops on each island. Weak bands of cloud coming from the north will slightly increase cloud and shower activity through Saturday. That slight increase in shower activity should decrease by Sunday morning as these clouds decrease and drift west with returning trade winds.
Another change in our weather pattern will occur early next week when another cold front approaches the Hawaiian Islands from the northwest. This frontal system will break through the weak ridge north of the island chain and generate a light and variable wind pattern from Monday to Wednesday. Light, large-scale winds allow local sea breezes to develop on all islands during the day. Converging ocean breezes and island heating create clouds over the mountain and interior sections of the island each day, with a few showers favoring the afternoon into the early evening hours.
The forecast for the long distance forecast shows that the forward motion at the front will drop off as it approaches the condition. The differences between the American (GFS) and the European (ECMWF) model in the Eastern Frontal Movement are continued in the latest model runs for operational forecasting. Both models show a better agreement in terms of frontal movement, however, as expected, some differences remain. The GFS model continues to be more advanced, bringing clouds and showers to the slow frontline into Kauai and Oahu on Tuesday and Wednesday. While the latest ECMWF model blocks the front line over the island of Kauai. Shower cover and trends with the frontal cloud band will favor Kauai and Oahu. The amounts of precipitation remain modest in both global model solutions. We have integrated both model GFS and ECMWF solutions into the precipitation forecast for Tuesday and Wednesday in order to minimize forecast errors of a model solution.

aviation

A surface ridge far north of the islands is now sustained light to moderate trade winds in the northeast. The background flow can be weak enough for a local sea breeze to form over leeward stretches of some islands this afternoon. The leading edge of residual moisture from a dispersed front appears to be northwest of Kauai early this morning. As that moisture continues to push down toward the islands, expect broken low clouds and scattered showers to spread over Kauai. As a result, MVFR conditions may spread further over north through east facing sections of Kauai later in the morning due to lower ceilings and reduced visibility.
Elsewhere, the northeast river will continue to carry scattered low clouds and scattered showers north through east-facing sections of the islands east of Kauai. This may result in brief MVFR conditions along some north to east slopes from Oahu to the Big Island today. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected to prevail on most of the islands east of Kauai.
The remaining moisture from the former frontline may spread over parts of Oahu and the islands of Maui County later today and tonight. Depending on cloud cover and shower activity, MVFR conditions can continue to spread in some north and east facing sections of Oahu, Molokai and Maui, especially after sunset that evening.
No AIRMETS are currently in force and none are currently expected. AIRMET Sierra to obscure the mountains may be required later in the morning on Kauai when cloud cover and shower activity increase significantly.

marine

Low pressure penetrating the area north of the state will weaken the trade winds, swinging them north today through Saturday. Northeast winds are expected through Sunday as the low moves northeast and the high re-establishes north of the islands. Light winds will dominate Monday and Tuesday as remnants of a frontal boundary approach from the northwest.
Short-term north swell will keep the surf along the north coast well below the recommended level into the next week. The north swell also brings an increase in surf on exposed east and west coasts. The southern waves in the background create a small surf along the south-facing coast, with a slight bump possible on weekends.

HFO watches / warnings / notices

None.

Data courtesy of NOAA.gov

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