Hawaii County climate forecast is August 31, 2021

Hilo

Today: Partly sunny with a few showers. Heights from 78 to 85 near the shore to 64 to 71 at 4000 feet. East wind up to 10 km / h. 50 percent chance of rain.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with a few showers. Lows of 65 to 72 near shore to about 57 to 4000 feet. South wind up to 10 km / h. 50 percent chance of rain.

Wednesday: Partly sunny. Showers probably in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Heights 79 to 85 near shore to 65 to 71 at 4000 feet. East winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 60 percent.

Kona

Today: Partly sunny. A few showers in the afternoon. Heights from 83 to 88 near shore to about 68 near 5000 feet. Westerly winds up to 10 mph in the morning will be light. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Lows of 70 to 75 near shore to about 54 near 5000 feet. Breeze.

THE ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW THE ADVERT

Wednesday: Partly sunny. Isolated showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs from 86 near shore to about 69 near 5000 feet. Breeze. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Waimea

THE ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW THE ADVERT

Today: Partly sunny with a few showers. Highs 63 to 84. Northeasterly winds up to 10 miles per hour. 50 percent chance of rain.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with a few showers. Lows of 64 to 71 near shore to 58 to 64 near 3000 feet. East wind up to 10 km / h. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Wednesday: Partly sunny with a few showers. Highs 65 to 86. East winds 10 to 15 miles per hour. 50 percent chance of rain.

Kohala

THE ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW THE ADVERT

Today: Partly sunny with a few showers. Highs 63 to 84. Northeasterly winds up to 10 miles per hour. 50 percent chance of rain.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with a few showers. Lows of 64 to 71 near shore to 58 to 64 near 3000 feet. East wind up to 10 km / h. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Wednesday: Partly sunny with a few showers. Highs 65 to 86. East winds 10 to 15 miles per hour. 50 percent chance of rain.

Southern big island

Today: Mostly sunny. A few showers in the afternoon. Highs from 84 near shore to 66 near 5000 feet. Southeasterly winds up to 15 miles per hour. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Lows of 73 near shore to about 54 near 5000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 miles per hour.

Wednesday: Partly sunny. A few showers in the afternoon. Heights from 85 near shore to 67 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 miles per hour. Chance of rain 30 percent.

feedback

Today: Partly sunny with a few showers. Heights from 78 to 85 near the shore to 64 to 71 at 4000 feet. East wind up to 10 km / h. 50 percent chance of rain.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with a few showers. Lows of 65 to 72 near shore to about 57 to 4000 feet. South wind up to 10 km / h. 50 percent chance of rain.

Wednesday: Partly sunny. Showers probably in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Heights 79 to 85 near shore to 65 to 71 at 4000 feet. East winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 60 percent.

Waikoloa

Today: Partly sunny. A few showers in the afternoon. Heights from 83 to 88 near shore to 65 to 72 over 4000 feet. Northwest winds up to 10 km / h. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows of 74 near shore to 51 to 57 over 4000 feet. In the evening the northwest wind blows up to 10 km / h and becomes light. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Wednesday: Partly sunny with a few showers. Heights from 84 to 90 near shore to 67 to 73 over 4000 feet. Breeze. Chance of rain 20 percent.

summary

A surface trough east of the islands and a weak disturbance at altitude will keep trades easy and the atmosphere a little more unstable for the next few days. The local sea breeze during the day will mean that afternoon and evening showers occur inland and in leeward sections. There will also be some windward and mauka showers, mostly at night and in the morning. The bottom and disturbance are still starting to recede on Wednesday, with drier, airier trades gradually returning from east to west later Wednesday through Thursday. We expect locally windy weather on Friday as high pressure develops in the north of the Aloha state. The trades will weaken over the coming holiday weekend.

discussion

A surface trough just over 200 miles east and NE of PHNL passed buoy 51100 at approx. 07z and the wind there has changed to SE. The trough moves slowly at about 8 miles per hour in the direction of W. Though humidity is fairly limited with Separable Water (PW) of only about an inch at Lihue and 1.2 at Hilo, the occasional shower in front of the trough is thrown by a 700 mb low over the islands which has increased and weakened the usual trade wind inversion over the state. The late evening ASCAT pass showed a sizable area of ​​light winds in the S and SE of the surface trough that was supposed to cross the Hawaiian Islands today. So today, gentle business turns into a sea breeze for most areas.
The combination of the approaching surface valley and the mean low should result in a fairly active convection pattern this afternoon despite some low humidity. This idea is supported by the high-resolution guide, which suggests that active downpours will develop in the usual indoor and lee sections this afternoon. Most of these downpours should be brief, but local heavy rain has been mentioned for the afternoon for the usual locations.
The afternoon convection will subside tonight and the low and mean low continue to move west and weaken. Behind the axis of the trough, the background current turns to SE, but local land winds gain the upper hand in sheltered locations. Some indoor and lee areas become at least partially clear overnight, while the SE current brings some clouds and showers with it. These will usually prefer windward and mauka stretches, but there may be some rain on some south coasts as well.
The SE current will pull additional moisture over the islands on Wednesday even as temperatures begin to warm to medium levels. The smaller islands will likely lie in the lee of the Big Island for most of the day, so additional plumes of convection and / or convergence in the afternoon should allow for additional showers for much of the day. The trades will build up again later on Wednesday, but will not settle until Wednesday evening or Thursday.
Today through Wednesday a tapering tropical trough of the upper troposphere or TUTT in our NW will continue to bring high moisture from the SW over the islands. Mottled cirrus clouds will pour over the islands, causing heavy cloud cover on occasion. Initially this will be mostly thin and near the Big Island, but the guide shows that this cirrus will likely get thicker near Kauai and possibly Oahu later from Wed to Thu before moving to our W.
Definitely drier and more stable air recirculation on breezy trades as of Thurs. Trades can get locally windy on Friday as a 1028mb high level consolidates about 900 miles north of Honolulu near 34N 157W. You may need to keep an eye on Fri as a possible red flag warning day when the dew points are drying out enough. The high remains quasi-stationary and then weakens, so that the trades subside over the holiday weekend. The background flow can rotate southeast around the islands again by Labor Day if the models are correct.

aviation

Land breezes have developed over the islands while very light cruises continue to slowly drive heavy local showers and pockets of MVFR Windward Oahu. After sunrise, the development of the sea breeze will shift the focus for showers and MVFR to the leeward and interior areas. Over Windward Big Island, light winds will again move clouds and showers from PHTO far upwards, which favors dry weather and higher ceilings. Land winds will bring clarity tonight.

marine

Small change to the forecast with the morning package. High pressure remains high in the north and a surface valley in the northeast. This combination will maintain a light trade wind pattern until tonight. The trough is expected to move west, north of the islands, and to be northwest of the islands on Wednesday. This allows the trade winds to build up over the region from E to W later on Wednesday and Thursday. The wind will likely be strong enough over the typical windier areas near Maui County and the Big Island on Thursday to warrant Small Craft Advisories (SCA). The trade winds are expected to intensify on Friday, which could aid the SCA’s expansion to most, if not all, waters.
No significant swells are expected until the weekend. A series of small swells in the south and southeast will keep the surf going throughout the period. The surf on the east coast will remain very low until the trade winds pick up in the second half of the week.

HFO watches / warnings / notices

None.

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Data courtesy of NOAA.gov

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