Hawaii County climate forecast is June 15, 2021

Photo credit: James Grenz

Hilo

Today: A few showers, mostly before 1 p.m. Partly sunny with a high near 84. Light and changeable winds blowing from 5 to 9 miles per hour from the east in the afternoon. The probability of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall levels of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Tonight: A few showers, mostly after 7pm. Mostly cloudy with a low of about 63. East winds 5 to 8 mph will be light and variable. The probability of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall levels of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Wednesday: A few showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 83. Light and changeable winds blowing from east-southeast at 5 to 8 miles per hour in the afternoon. The probability of precipitation is 50%. New rainfall levels of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Kona

Today: A few showers after noon. Partly sunny, with a high near 79. Light and changeable wind blowing in the morning from west-northwest between 5 and 9 miles per hour. The probability of precipitation is 20%.

Tonight: A few showers. Partly cloudy, with a low of about 62. West-northwest winds 5 to 11 km / h will be calm. The probability of precipitation is 20%.

THE ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW THE ADVERT

Wednesday: A few showers after noon. Partly sunny, with a high near 79. West winds 5 to 11 mph that become calm in the afternoon. The probability of precipitation is 20%.

Waimea

THE ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW THE ADVERT

Today: single showers. Partly sunny, peaking near 78. Breezes, with northeasterly winds of 14 to 28 miles per hour, with gusts of up to 40 miles per hour. The probability of precipitation is 20%.

Tonight: A few showers, mostly after midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a minimum of about 55. Breeze, with a northeasterly wind of 11 to 24 km / h, with gusts of up to 34 km / h. The probability of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall levels of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Wednesday: A few showers. Partly sunny, with a peak near 78. Breeze, with a northeasterly wind of 10 to 24 km / h, with gusts of up to 34 km / h. The probability of precipitation is 40%. New levels of precipitation between a tenth and a quarter of an inch are possible.

Kohala

THE ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW THE ADVERT

Today: single showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 64. Windy, with an easterly wind of 20 to 23 mph, with gusts of up to 32 mph. The probability of precipitation is 20%.

Tonight: A few showers, mostly after midnight. Partly cloudy, with a minimum of about 50. Windy, with an easterly wind that decreases to 20-25 mph after midnight. Winds could reach up to 36 miles per hour. The probability of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall levels of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Wednesday: A few showers. Partly sunny, with highs near 64. East winds 7 to 21 mph. The probability of precipitation is 50%. New rainfall levels of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Southern big island

Today: Mostly sunny, with a peak near 84. Windy, with easterly winds of 21 to 40 km / h, with gusts of up to 32 km / h.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with a minimum of about 71. Windy, with easterly winds of 22 to 24 mph, with gusts of up to 50 mph.

Wednesday: A few showers after noon. Mostly sunny, with a high near 84. Windy, with easterly winds of 20 to 24 miles per hour, with gusts of up to 50 miles per hour. The probability of precipitation is 20%.

Feedback

Today: a few showers. Partly sunny with a high near 83.Northwest winds 7-11 mph turning east-northeast in the afternoon. The probability of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall levels of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Tonight: A few showers. Mostly cloudy with a low of about 61. East-northeast winds 5 to 9 mph that becomes light and variable. The probability of precipitation is 40%. New rainfall levels of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Wednesday: Showers likely, mostly after noon. Partly sunny, with a peak near 82. Light and changeable wind that blows between 15 and 18 km / h from the east in the afternoon. The probability of precipitation is 60%. New levels of precipitation between a tenth and a quarter of an inch are possible.

Waikoloa

Today: Mostly sunny with a high near 84. East-northeast winds 5 to 11 miles per hour turning west-northwest in the afternoon.

Tonight: A few showers before midnight. Partly cloudy with a low of about 63. West-northwest winds 5 to 11 miles per hour turning east-northeast after midnight. The probability of precipitation is 20%.

Wednesday: A few showers after noon. Mostly sunny, with a high near 84. East-northeast winds 6 to 11 mph, which become light and changeable in the afternoon. The probability of precipitation is 20%.

Summary

The high pressure north of the state will hold moderate to locally breezy trades through Friday, with trades falling in the light to moderate range from Saturday through Monday as a front northwest of the islands approaches and persists. The remnants of an ancient front will bring Kauai and Oahu an increase in rain cover and intensity during the morning through Wednesday, with the likelihood of rain being highest over the windward areas, especially on Kauai. A more typical trade wind pattern will return Wednesday night and last until early next week, with showers favoring the windward and mauka areas and some showers reaching leeward communities from time to time.

discussion

There is currently a 1027 mb high high on the surface, centered about 950 miles north-northeast of Honolulu and driving moderate trade winds over the island chain this morning. Infrared satellite imagery shows quite a few high clouds moving overhead, while the leading edge of a cloud band about 160 kilometers wide (the remains of an ancient front) is visible about 80 kilometers north of Kauai and Oahu. Radar images show scattered showers moving into windward sections of Kauai and across the coastal waters east and northeast of Oahu. Elsewhere there is currently very little shower activity. The top short-term concerns revolve around the likelihood of rain associated with the old frontal remnants that will take hold over the next few days.
In the north of the islands, a high pressure area will build up over the next few days, while a weak disturbance is pushing west in the south of the state. This means that moderate to locally airy trades will remain in place until Friday. A front is expected to approach from the northwest on Friday night and Saturday and then move several hundred miles northwest of the islands from Sunday through early next week. As a result, we should see trades dropping into the easy to medium range on Friday night and Saturday and holding at similar levels from Sunday through early next week.
As for the remaining weather details, the old head-on remains are expected to lead to an increase in showers starting this morning, especially in the windward stretches of Kauai and Oahu, with the fairly wet trade winds then continuing through Wednesday, especially for Kauai. Rain showers will favor windward and mauka areas, but some rain showers will reach leeward communities as well. Maui County and the Big Island will experience drier trade winds with mainly windward showers.
An altitude disturbance will move south over or north of the state Wednesday night and Thursday and then meander near the islands by early next week. Overall, this should bring an increase in coverage and intensity of trade wind showers from Thursday to the beginning of next week. Showers will continue to favor windward and mauka areas, but the elevated inversions will likely send some more showers to leeward areas as well. Additionally, a thunderstorm or two could develop over the Big Island on Thursday afternoon.

aviation

High pressure in the north of the state will continue to bring moderate east-northeast trade across the islands for the remainder of the day. Isolated to isolated showers will mainly be limited to windward-facing locations with short periods of time with MVFR upper limits and possible visibility. Expect VFR conditions and partly cloudy skies elsewhere.
Increased low humidity approaching from the north will bring increased cloud cover and the possibility of showers for Kauai and Oahu by this afternoon.
No AIRMETS are currently in force.

marine

High pressures north of the islands will sustain moderate to fresh trade winds throughout the week. The rain showers will increase over the northern waters tonight and tonight. The winds will hit small craft advisory thresholds today in the windier waters near Maui and the Big Island. Trade winds can decrease over the weekend as a front in the northwest of the state is developing well.
Surfing along the south-facing coasts will remain small until Wednesday, then slowly increase and approach high surf advisory levels over the weekend. A brief north swell will create and decrease small surf along the north facing coasts tonight and Wednesday. Surfing along the north coast will be minimal for the remainder of the week, but a small northwest swell is possible early next week. Trade winds upstream of the islands will create only a small and choppy surf along the east-facing coasts.

HFO watches / warnings / notices

Small Craft Advisory from noon today through 6:00 p.m. Wednesday HST for Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.

Data courtesy of NOAA.gov

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