Hawaii County climate forecast is June 22, 2021

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Photo credit: James Grenz

Hilo

Today: A few showers before noon. Mostly sunny, with a high near 82. Light and changeable wind blowing 5 to 9 miles per hour from the northeast in the morning. The probability of precipitation is 20%.

Tonight: A few showers, mostly after midnight. Partly cloudy, with a low of about 68. North-northeast wind with about 8 km / h, which becomes calm in the evening. The probability of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall levels of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Wednesday: A few showers, mostly before noon. Partly sunny, with a high near 81. Calm winds blowing 5 to 11 mph from east-northeast. The probability of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall levels of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Kona

Today: A few showers after noon. Mostly sunny, with a peak near 81. Calm wind blowing from west-southwest at about 10 km / h. The probability of precipitation is 20%.

Tonight: A few showers before midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low of around 67. Light and changeable wind. The probability of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall levels of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

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Wednesday: A few showers after noon. Mostly sunny, with a peak near 80. Light and changeable wind with a speed of about 8 km / h from the west. The probability of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall levels of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Waimea

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Today: A few showers after noon. Mostly sunny, peaking near 76. Breezes, with northeasterly winds of 13 to 26 miles per hour, with gusts of up to 35 miles per hour. The probability of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall levels of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Tonight: A few showers. Partly cloudy, with a minimum of about 58. Breezes, with northeasterly winds of 13 to 25 mph, with gusts of up to 34 mph. The probability of precipitation is 20%.

Wednesday: single showers. Mostly sunny, with a peak near 76. Breeze, with a northeasterly wind of 10 to 24 km / h, with gusts of up to 34 km / h. The probability of precipitation is 20%.

Kohala

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Today: A few showers, especially after noon. Partly sunny, with a peak near 70. East-northeast wind 6 to 23 km / h, with gusts of up to 30 km / h. The probability of precipitation is 40%. New rainfall levels of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Tonight: A few showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low of about 56. East-northeast winds 6 to 11 mph. The probability of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall levels of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Wednesday: A few showers, mostly before noon. Mostly sunny, with a high near 70. East-northeast winds 6 to 11 mph. The probability of precipitation is 30%.

Southern big island

Today: A few showers before noon. Mostly sunny, peaking near 83rd breezes, with east-northeast winds of 14 to 21 mph, with gusts of up to 42 mph. The probability of precipitation is 20%.

Tonight: A few showers. Partly cloudy, with a minimum of about 73. Breezes, with east-northeast winds of 16 to 21 mph, with gusts of up to 42 mph. The probability of precipitation is 20%.

Wednesday: single showers. Mostly sunny, with a peak near 83rd breezes, with an east-northeast wind of 16 to 20 mph, with gusts of up to 40 mph. The probability of precipitation is 20%.

Feedback

Today: single showers. Partly sunny with a high near 77. Northwest winds 7 to 13 miles per hour turning northeast in the morning. The probability of precipitation is 20%.

Tonight: A few showers. Mostly cloudy with a minimum of around 65. North winds 6 to 8 mph. The probability of precipitation is 50%. New rainfall levels of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Wednesday: A few showers, mostly before noon. Partly sunny, with a high near 77. Northeast winds 6 to 9 mph. The probability of precipitation is 40%. New rainfall levels of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Waikoloa

Today: Sunny, with a high near 84. Light and changeable wind blowing at 5 to 11 miles per hour from north-northwest in the morning.

Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low of about 66. Calm wind that blows about 10 km / h to the east after midnight.

Wednesday: individual showers after 1 p.m. Sunny, with a high near 84. East-northeast winds at about 8 miles per hour turning west-northwest in the afternoon. The probability of precipitation is 20%.

Summary

A high pressure ridge 520 miles north of Kauai this morning will move south to about 320 miles north of Kauai on Thursday. The ridge will stay there until Friday evening before moving north. This action means that trade winds persist over the area until Thursday and then give way to lighter winds with a slight south component on Saturday night and Friday. Trade winds return and intensify Friday night through Sunday.

discussion

A surface high of 1028 MB is centered 1350 miles to the northeast of the islands this Tuesday morning. A ridge extends southwest to about 520 miles north of Kauai. The high will hold where it is now through Thursday before heading north and stationary off the Oregon coast on Friday. The surface ridge is now moving south and will become nearly stationary north of Kauai on Thursday 220. This action will cause the trade winds to weaken and shift to the east and east-southeast during the night on Saturday and Friday. With this wind current, Maui and Big Island will bring a mixture of an easterly background current over the water and a day breeze from the ocean and the night land breeze over the remaining islands. The convergent sea breeze over land, especially in the lee and inland areas, will lead to some afternoon clouds and showers there.
The latest satellite and weather radar images show a very slight increase in trade showers. These showers are pretty common. The 2 a.m. rain gauge reports show that Kauai is wettest on windward, and a small handful of 1 to 3 hundredths of an inch in the Koolau Mountains of Oahu. The GFS showed a strengthening mean ridge this morning that will limit those trade showers today. The 2 a.m. HST soundings from Lihue and Hilo show a strong, low level inversion sloping from 8k feet to 200 feet above Hilo.
So for today we expect a similar picture as yesterday, that is, a mottled afternoon cloud over the empty areas of the smaller islands together with one or two showers. Otherwise, expect a dry day with lots of sunshine. A layer of cirrus clouds will pass by, but not enough to block the sun. The cirrus will create a beautiful sunrise and sunset.
The JRC and ECMWF both point to a small influx of low-level moisture returning to the islands tonight, mostly after midnight, as the ridge is weakened by an approaching short wave valley from the north. The amount of Friday afternoon showers due to the ocean breeze and the less stable air mass could be on the scattered side. We will be able to assess these showers better when we close on Friday. On Friday night, the trade winds make a comeback as a new surface high comes in from the west. The surface ridge, parked about 200 miles north of Kauai Thursday through Saturday, is held in place by a front just north of the ridge. The front is expected to disintegrate on Saturday and Saturday nights, allowing the ridge to migrate north and business to spread across the region. The trade winds are expected to intensify locally until Sunday or Sunday night.

aviation

Light to locally moderate trade winds will continue for the next few days. Occasional low clouds and showers favor east and northeast facing slopes and coasts, especially in the late night and early morning hours. In the case of passing showers, isolated MVFR conditions are to be expected, otherwise VFR conditions prevail.
The lighter background current allows for nocturnal land breezes and most lee slopes to be cleared overnight. In the afternoon and early evening, local sea breezes develop along the lakefront and promote the inland clouds.
No AIRMETs are currently in effect or are expected at this point in time. However, model forecasts indicate that an area with moderate turbulence at the upper level will develop in the far west of the forecast area next afternoon. Will monitor for potential AIRMET Tango.

marine

A ridge northwest of the area will generate moderate to locally fresh east trade winds over the coastal waters over the next few days. The winds get stronger over the weekend and could reach Small Craft Advisory levels around Maui and the Big Island.
The current south swell will subside tonight. Small to moderate swells are expected in the south until the weekend. A small southeast swell is expected from Thursday. Small swells in the northwest will last until the weekend. The weaker trade winds will limit the surf along the east-facing coastlines, but stronger winds off the California coast will create a small northeast swell.

HFO watches / warnings / notices

None.

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Data courtesy of NOAA.gov

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