Hawaii County climate forecast is March 07, 2021

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Photo credit: James Grenz

Hilo

Today: Showers likely, thunderstorms possible after 1 p.m. Some of the storms could cause heavy rains. Mostly cloudy with a high of nearly 75. Light north-northeast wind rising to 5 to 9 mph in the afternoon. The risk of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall is between a tenth and a quarter of an inch, with the exception of higher amounts that are possible during thunderstorms.

Tonight: Frequent showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Some of the storms could cause heavy rains. Low around 62. North-northeast winds, 5 to 9 miles per hour, which become light and variable. The risk of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall is between a tenth and a quarter of an inch, with the exception of higher amounts that are possible during thunderstorms.

Monday: Frequent showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Some of the storms could cause heavy rains. High near 76. West winds at 5 miles per hour, calming in the morning. The risk of precipitation is 90%. New amounts of precipitation are possible between a quarter and a half inch.

Kona

Today: isolated showers and thunderstorms after noon. Some of the storms could cause heavy rains. Widespread haze. Increasing clouds with a high of almost 78. Calm wind blowing at 8 km / h to the northwest in the afternoon. The probability of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall is between a tenth and a quarter of an inch, with the exception of higher amounts that are possible during thunderstorms.

Tonight: a few showers. Widespread haze. Cloudy, with a constant temperature of around 70. Calm wind. The risk of precipitation is 40%. New rainfall between a quarter and a half inch is possible.

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Monday: isolated showers and thunderstorms. Some of the storms could cause heavy rains. Widespread haze. Partly sunny with a high of almost 79. Calm wind. The risk of precipitation is 40%. New rainfall is between a tenth and a quarter of an inch, with the exception of higher amounts that are possible during thunderstorms.

Waimea

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Today: a few showers, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 1 p.m. Some of the storms could cause heavy rains. Partly sunny, with an altitude of nearly 73. Breezy, with easterly winds of 15 to 17 miles per hour, with gusts of up to 24 miles per hour. The risk of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between half an inch and three quarters of an inch are possible.

Tonight: Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Some of the storms could cause heavy rains. Cloudy, with a low of 51. Breezy, with easterly winds of 15 to 17 mph, with gusts of up to 24 mph. The risk of precipitation is 60%. New amounts of precipitation between three quarters and one inch are possible.

Monday: a few showers, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 7 a.m. Some of the storms could cause heavy rains. Mostly cloudy, with an altitude of nearly 73. Breezy, with easterly winds of 11 to 17 miles per hour, with gusts of up to 24 miles per hour. The risk of precipitation is 70%. New amounts of precipitation are possible between a quarter and a half inch.

Kohala

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Today: isolated showers, then frequent showers and possibly a thunderstorm after noon. Some of the storms could cause heavy rains. High near 69. Windy, with easterly winds 18 to 23 mph, with gusts as high as 32 mph. The risk of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall less than a tenth of an inch, except during thunderstorms greater amounts.

Tonight: Frequent showers and possibly a thunderstorm before midnight, then showers likely. Some of the storms could cause heavy rains. Low at 44. Breezy, with an easterly wind at 21 mph, with gusts as high as 29 mph. The risk of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall is between a tenth and a quarter of an inch, with the exception of higher amounts that are possible during thunderstorms.

Monday: Frequent showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Some of the storms could cause heavy rains. High near 69. Breezy, with an easterly wind at 15 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph. The risk of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall is between a tenth and a quarter of an inch, with the exception of higher amounts that are possible during thunderstorms.

South Big Island

Today: isolated showers, then isolated showers and thunderstorms after noon. Some of the storms could cause heavy rains. Widespread haze after noon. Increasing clouds, nearly 78 high. Windy, with an east-northeast wind at 26 mph, with gusts of up to 34 mph. The probability of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall less than a tenth of an inch, except during thunderstorms greater amounts.

Tonight: scattered showers and thunderstorms, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after midnight. Some of the storms could cause heavy rains. Widespread haze. Cloudy, with a low of 68. Windy, with east-northeast winds of 23 to 28 mph, with gusts of up to 36 mph. The risk of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall less than a tenth of an inch, except that higher amounts are possible during thunderstorms.

Monday: Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Some of the storms could cause heavy rains. Widespread haze. Mostly cloudy, with a high of nearly 79. Windy, with an east-northeast wind at 26 mph, with gusts of up to 34 mph. The risk of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall less than a tenth of an inch, except during thunderstorms greater amounts.

Feedback

Today: Showers likely, thunderstorms also possible after noon. Some of the storms could cause heavy rains. Mostly cloudy, with a height of nearly 75. North-northeast winds 11 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. The risk of precipitation is 70%. New amounts of precipitation are possible between a quarter and a half inch.

Tonight: Frequent showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Some of the storms could cause heavy rains. Low around 60. North winds 10 to 13 miles an hour. The risk of precipitation is 90%. New amounts of precipitation between three quarters and one inch are possible.

Monday: Frequent showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Some of the storms could cause heavy rains. High near 76. North northeast winds 6 to 8 miles per hour. The risk of precipitation is 90%. New amounts of precipitation between three quarters and one inch are possible.

Waikoloa

Today: 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after noon. Some of the storms could cause heavy rains. Increasing clouds, peaking near 78. North-northeast winds 7 to 9 miles per hour.

Tonight: a few showers, mostly before midnight. Cloudy, with a constant temperature around 68. East-northeast winds at 9 miles per hour. The probability of precipitation is 30%. New levels of rainfall between a tenth and a quarter of an inch are possible.

Monday: isolated showers and thunderstorms. Some of the storms could cause heavy rains. Partly sunny, with a high of almost 79. East-northeast wind at 8 km / h, which becomes calm in the afternoon. The probability of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall is between a tenth and a quarter of an inch, with the exception of higher amounts that are possible during thunderstorms.

Summary

Troubled weather is likely for the week ahead as an upper level disruption interacts with tropical humidity. Windy trade winds will give way to light and variable winds by the middle of the week when a surface trough forms over the state. On Friday, strong northeast winds follow over Kauai and on the coming weekend to the remaining islands.

discussion

Although the evening was rather tame, there are some places that we are watching closely. The two areas are Kauai on windward and Haleakala on windward above Hana, where heavy showers occur.
In the second half of the week, the wind forecast shifted significantly. Instead of strong and gusty trade winds during the week, models suggest that a surface trough will form over the islands on Tuesday that will remain near the state until Friday. Strong and gusty northeast winds are expected to return to the area this coming weekend as the high pressure picks up north of the islands.
Another addition to the forecast is the low probability of thunderstorms for the Big Island and windward Maui starting this afternoon, which will remain in the forecast until at least Monday. The rest of the forecast package is pretty much the same, which means it will be rainy for most of the week. This prolonged period of unexplained weather will likely warrant a flash flood watch for most if not all of the islands and a winter weather report for the Big Island Summits.
An east-west facing upper trough with cold temperatures of around minus 13 degrees Celsius is located north of the islands this morning. An upper low is predicted to form west of Kauai later today as the increased low humidity moves from the southeast towards the Big Island. This moisture then spreads across the island chain by Monday evening. The upper low then drifts over the islands until Wednesday evening and remains until Friday. The combination of the cold temperatures in the air and the humid mass of air near the surface is likely to result in a prolonged period of heavy rainfall and possible thunderstorms.

aviation

FR conditions prevail at all TAF locations with a few short MVFR conditions at PHLI and PHTO in low clouds and Shra. Expect these conditions to continue into the morning hours. AIRMET Sierra is currently in effect for Kauai, Maui, and the Big Island as the mountains are dark. These are short periods of MVFR conditions elsewhere along the windward slopes until the early hours of the morning when low clouds interact with the island’s terrain.
AIRMET Tango is currently in effect over and immediately south to west of mountain ranges due to low mechanical turbulence.

HFO watches / warnings / notices

Small Craft Advisory until 6:00 a.m. HST Monday for all Hawaiian waters.

Data courtesy of NOAA.gov

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