Hawaii County climate forecast is March 24, 2021

Hilo

Today: isolated showers, thunderstorms also possible after 1 p.m. Partly sunny with a high of nearly 79. Southeasterly winds 8 to 11 miles per hour. The risk of precipitation is 50%. New rainfall less than a tenth of an inch, except during thunderstorms greater amounts.

Tonight: isolated showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy with a low of around 62. Southeasterly winds 5 to 11 miles per hour. The risk of precipitation is 50%. New rainfall levels of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher levels possible during thunderstorms.

Thursday: a few showers, mostly after 7 a.m. Partly sunny with a high of nearly 80. Southeasterly winds 5 to 9 miles per hour. The risk of precipitation is 40%. New rainfall levels of less than a tenth of an inch are possible.

Kona

Today: isolated showers and thunderstorms after noon. Partly sunny with a high to almost 80. Light west-northwest wind. The probability of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall less than a tenth of an inch, except during thunderstorms greater amounts.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with a low of 61. Light and changing winds.

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Thursday: a few showers after noon. Partly sunny with a high to almost 81. Light south-south-west wind. The probability of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall levels of less than a tenth of an inch are possible.

Waimea

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Today: isolated showers and thunderstorms after noon. Mostly sunny with a high of almost 76. Light and changing winds. The probability of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall is between a tenth and a quarter of an inch, with the exception of higher amounts that are possible during thunderstorms.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with a low of 49. East winds 3 to 5 miles per hour.

Thursday: a few showers after noon. Mostly sunny with a high of almost 77. Light west wind. The risk of precipitation is 50%. New levels of rainfall between a tenth and a quarter of an inch are possible.

Kohala

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Today: isolated showers, then isolated showers and thunderstorms after noon. Partly sunny with high winds of nearly 74. West-southwest winds at 5 miles per hour. The probability of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall less than a tenth of an inch, except during thunderstorms greater amounts.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with a low of around 40. Light south wind.

Thursday: a few showers, mainly after noon. Mostly sunny, with a high of almost 74. Light and changing winds. The risk of precipitation is 50%. New rainfall levels of less than a tenth of an inch are possible.

South Big Island

Today: a few showers, mainly before noon. Mostly sunny, with an altitude of nearly 79. Airy, with an easterly wind at 17 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph. The risk of precipitation is 40%. New rainfall levels of less than a tenth of an inch are possible.

Tonight: a few showers. Partly cloudy, with a low of around 70. Airy, with an east-northeast wind at 18 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph. The probability of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall levels of less than a tenth of an inch are possible.

Thursday: a few showers, mostly before noon. Mostly sunny, with an altitude of almost 80. Airy, with an easterly wind at 18 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph. The probability of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall levels of less than a tenth of an inch are possible.

Feedback

Today: isolated showers, thunderstorms also possible after noon. Partly sunny, with a high of nearly 78. Southeasterly winds at 11 miles per hour. The risk of precipitation is 50%. New rainfall is between a tenth and a quarter of an inch, with the exception of higher amounts that are possible during thunderstorms.

Tonight: a few showers. Mostly cloudy with a low of around 60. Southeasterly winds at 7 miles per hour. The risk of precipitation is 50%. New levels of rainfall between a tenth and a quarter of an inch are possible.

Thursday: a few showers. Partly sunny with a high of nearly 79. Southeasterly winds 6 to 8 miles per hour. The risk of precipitation is 40%. New rainfall levels of less than a tenth of an inch are possible.

Waikoloa

Today: isolated showers and thunderstorms after noon. Mostly sunny with high winds of nearly 82nd west northwest winds at 6 miles per hour. The probability of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall less than a tenth of an inch, except during thunderstorms greater amounts.

Tonight: Clear most of the time, with a low of 59. East-southeast winds 3 to 7 miles per hour.

Thursday: a few showers after noon. Mostly sunny, with a high of nearly 82. West winds 3 to 7 miles per hour. The probability of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall levels of less than a tenth of an inch are possible.

Summary

The winds have weakened and turned south on an approaching cold front northwest of Kauai. Expect more and more showers to form along a band of clouds, mostly affecting Oahu and Kauai until Thursday. The rest of the state will see passing showers with embedded brief downpours mixed with periods of good weather and clear skies.

discussion

A front about 150 miles northwest of Kauai has turned island winds from the south. Convergence in the southern river has resulted in a streak of cloudy skies over the Kauai Canal, with scattered showers affecting mostly western Oahu. A small movement of this band eastward would bring about large weather changes for Oahu in the form of clouds and widespread rain. The forecast for today will increase showers over Oahu, with a focus on western locations on the island. The Big Island Puna and Kau districts will see showers quickly in the morning as they cruise the southeast river into the Mauna Loa slopes. Some elevated convection is expected on the lower slopes of the Big Island this afternoon, with the possibility of an isolated thunderstorm or two.
The CIMSS satellite estimate of Rainwater (PW) shows increasing PW moving across the eastern half of the state to Oahu. This humidity, coupled with the low convergence and the slight instability in the air, should lead to increasing precipitation along the convergence band. High-resolution models show this band of convergence that will remain near Oahu until Thursday, when the front troughs as the front hits Kauai. Expect organized showers to form along the convergence band near Oahu while the rest of the state will see isolated showers with embedded downpours. Apart from the band, there will also be many periods of good weather and clear skies.
On Friday, the high pressure in the northeast is expected to amplify trade winds from east to west across the state. Current model solutions place a residual trough near Oahu on Thursday evening, which will push west with the trades on Friday. This scenario would make Kauai shower increasingly while the rest of the state shifts to a trade wind regime. Expect windy trade winds and mostly showers before the wind on the weekend.

aviation

Light winds off a front approaching the islands from the northwest will deviate to the south and southwest over the forecast period. This will focus clouds and showers over southern and Mauka areas where isolated cases of MVFR are possible. Isolated thunderstorms in the interior of the Big Island are possible this afternoon. This morning there is a prefrontal band of showering low clouds between Oahu and Kauai. To date, more organized shower activity and a higher likelihood of MVFR can be expected for the western islands.
AIRMETs are not currently in effect, but they may be needed later in the morning as the showering cloud band in the Kauai Channel becomes more active and affects the nearby islands.

marine

An approaching cold front will move across the waters of Kauai and Oahu tonight through Thursday and then stall and wane through Thursday evening. Winds vary from south-southwest over the waters of Kauai and Oahu to south-southeast over the waters of Maui County and the Big Island ahead. Fresh breezes can be expected in the southeastern river near South Point on the Big Island and over the windward waters of the Big Island along the Hamakua coast. Light and changing winds will be possible over the waters of Kauai and Oahu tonight through Thursday as the front lines move into the area. In addition to the winds, shower coverage along and in front of the front line will increase during the day, especially at the western end of the state (few storms cannot be ruled out in the waters of Kauai, Oahu today). Fresh to locally strong trade winds are expected to return on Friday through the weekend as the trough shifts west of the area and the ridge builds up to the north.
Surfing along exposed banks facing north and west will be the trend today and will continue until Thursday, when moderate waves build up in the northwest (320 degrees) along the island chain. Overnight observations from the offshore and nearshore buoys reflect this new energy increasing within the 14 to 15 second bands. Surfing will be near advisory level this afternoon through Thursday for the smaller islands and then relax over the weekend. In the long run, the guide shows a broad storm developing and lifting north over the far northwestern Pacific near the Kuril Islands this weekend and could send a small, long-lasting west-northwest swell into the area by Wednesday next week ( low confidence). .
Surfing along the east coast stays just below advisory level through Thursday as the east trade wind swells up from a large area with fresh breeze upstream of the islands. A downward trend will be possible over the weekend.
Surfing along the south-facing coast will pick up in the second half of the week and through the weekend as overlapping, long-lasting south-southwest waves from recent activity across the South Pacific pull through within Hawaii’s wave window.

HFO watches / warnings / notices

None.

Data courtesy of NOAA.gov

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