Hawaii County climate forecast July 14, 2021

Photo credit: James Grenz

Hilo

Today: a few showers. Partly sunny with a high near 83. Calm wind blowing from east-northeast 5 to 11 miles per hour in the afternoon. The probability of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall levels of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Tonight: Showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low of about 68. Calm wind that blows about 10 km / h from west-southwest after midnight. The probability of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall levels of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Thursday: Showers likely, mostly before noon. Partly sunny with a high near 82. Calm wind blowing from the east at 5 to 8 miles per hour in the afternoon. The probability of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall levels of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Kona

Today: A few showers after noon. Sunny, with a peak near 80. Light and changeable wind with a speed of about 10 km / h from the west. The probability of precipitation is 20%.

Tonight: A few showers, mostly before midnight. Partly cloudy, with a low of around 67. Light and changeable wind. The probability of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall levels of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

THE ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW THE ADVERT

Thursday: A few showers after noon. Mostly sunny, with a peak near 80. Calm wind blowing from west-northwest at a speed of 10 km / h. The probability of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall levels of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Waimea

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Today: single showers. Mostly sunny, peaking near 77th breeze, with northeasterly winds of 9 to 26 miles per hour, with gusts of up to 35 miles per hour. The probability of precipitation is 20%.

Tonight: A few showers. Mostly cloudy with a minimum of about 58. Breezes, with northeasterly winds of 11 to 25 mph, with gusts of up to 35 mph. The probability of precipitation is 40%. New levels of precipitation between a tenth and a quarter of an inch are possible.

Thursday: A few showers. Partly sunny, with a peak near 77. East-northeast winds 11 to 23 km / h, with gusts of up to 18 km / h. The probability of precipitation is 40%. New levels of precipitation between a tenth and a quarter of an inch are possible.

Kohala

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Today: single showers. Mostly sunny, peaking near 70. Breezes, with an east-northeast wind at 25 mph, with gusts up to 35 mph. The probability of precipitation is 20%.

Tonight: Showers likely. Mostly cloudy with a minimum of about 57 breezes, with east-northeast winds of 13 to 20 mph, with gusts of up to 45 mph. The probability of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall levels of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Thursday: Showers likely. Mostly cloudy, peaking near 70. Breezes, with easterly winds of 11 to 20 mph, with gusts of up to 45 mph. The probability of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall levels of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Southern big island

Today: Sunny, with a high near 84. Windy, with an easterly wind of 18 to 21 mph, with gusts of up to 42 mph.

Tonight: A few showers. Partly cloudy, with a minimum of about 73. Windy, with east-northeast winds of 21 to 24 mph, with gusts of up to 50 mph. The probability of precipitation is 20%.

Thursday: single showers. Mostly sunny, with a high near 85. Windy, with easterly winds 21 to 23 mph, with gusts up to 48 mph. The probability of precipitation is 20%.

Feedback

Today: a few showers. Partly sunny with highs near 79. West-northwest winds 5 to 9 mph blowing from the northeast in the morning. The probability of precipitation is 40%. New levels of precipitation between a tenth and a quarter of an inch are possible.

Tonight: Showers likely. Mostly cloudy with a low of about 66. Northeasterly winds 5 to 11 mph will be light and variable. The probability of precipitation is 70%. New amounts of precipitation between a quarter and a half inch are possible.

Thursday: Showers likely, mostly before noon. Mostly cloudy with a high near 79. West winds 5 to 13 mph blowing from the northeast in the morning. The probability of precipitation is 60%. New levels of precipitation between a tenth and a quarter of an inch are possible.

Waikoloa

Today: Sunny, peaking near 83. Calm wind blowing from west-northwest 5 to 11 miles per hour in the afternoon.

Tonight: A few showers before midnight. Mostly clear with a low of about 67. North winds 6 to 9 mph turning eastwards after midnight. The probability of precipitation is 20%.

Thursday: A few showers after noon. Sunny, with a high near 84. East winds 6 to 9 miles per hour turning north in the morning. The probability of precipitation is 20%.

Summary

A high pressure area will remain north of the area for the remainder of the week and through early next week. Moderate to stormy trade winds will persist throughout the forecast period. Clouds and passing showers will favor windward and mauka areas, with the trade winds strong enough to blow a few short passing showers over selected lee areas.

discussion

After a calm and mostly dry start, breezy trades have begun to focus on low cloudiness and showers over the windward areas. Satellite trends and the latest model solutions suggest that this trend will continue for the next few hours as boundary layer moisture continues to slowly rebound. Upstream, a well-defined surface channel carries an organized band of rain-bearing Cu and Stratocu. These showers, embedded in the trades, are advancing towards the area this morning and will reach the western part of the state later this morning. This happens when a mid-level trough sharpens just above the head, providing enough additional background force to give the showers an extra boost as they move over Kauai and, to a lesser extent, Oahu. The CIMMS satellite PWAT analysis averaging about 1.5 inches inside the trough increases the reliability of the model representations with good saturation up to about 9 or 10 kft. Pops were increased in the probable and categorical range this morning for sections of Oahu windward and for most of the day for Kauai. The bottom will also have a pressure signature sufficient to weaken trades to roughly moderate intensity. This can lead to increased convergence over leeward areas, which is worth increasing the forecast shower probabilities there as well. This moisture will linger over parts of the area until Wednesday night.
The slowly evolving large-scale pattern will offer little change for the rest of the forecast period. Predominantly airy trades will show only slight fluctuations, while a weak low point in the high altitude additionally stimulates the inversion highs in times of greater shower activity. Overall, typical trade wind weather with showers concentrated on windward and mauka areas, especially in the night and early morning hours, can be expected for the rest of the forecast period.

aviation

A high pressure ridge north of the Hawaiian Islands will generate moderate to breezy trade winds throughout the region. Due to the wind speeds, AIRMET Tango is advertised for tempo-wise turbulence below 080 south to west of all island mountains.
An upper trough north and west of the island chain along with weak, low-level disturbance will hold increased clouds and showers throughout the region. Most aerodromes have VFR conditions with short periods of MVFR conditions over some windward locations. AIRMET Sierra for high-speed mountain covers can be necessary today.

marine

A weak depression will bring trades below the Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level for a short time today, before tonight’s trades get stronger and bring SCA level winds back to the typical wind waters around Maui and the Big Island. Moderate to locally strong trades will then persist through Thursday night, with trades continuing to increase from Friday through early next week, allowing the SCA terms to be extended to additional sea zones.
The surf on the south-facing banks will remain well below the summer average until Thursday. The surfing trend will pick up on Friday when a new south swell fills in, with surfing highs approaching summer averages over the weekend. The surf on the south coast will then sink mostly to background levels early next week. Fresh to locally strong eastern trades will maintain rough and choppy surf along the east facing coastline for the next 7 days. The trade wind swell will remain near the summer average today through Friday and then rise slightly above normal levels over the weekend until the beginning of next week. No significant swells are expected during the entire forecast period.

HFO watches / warnings / notices

Small Craft Advisory until 6:00 a.m. HST this morning for Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.

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Data courtesy of NOAA.gov

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