Hawaii County Climate Forecast Might 11, 2021

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Photo credit: James Grenz

Hilo

Today: Showers likely, mostly before noon. Partly sunny, with a high near 82. North winds 6 to 8 mph. The probability of rainfall is 60%. New rainfall levels of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Tonight: Showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low of about 63. West winds 6 to 8 mph. The probability of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall levels of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Wednesday: Showers likely, mostly before noon. Partly sunny, with a high near 82. North-northeast winds around 10 mph. The probability of rainfall is 60%. New rainfall levels of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Kona

Today: A few showers after noon. Increasing clouds, with highs near 84. West winds 5 to 8 miles per hour become calm in the morning. The probability of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall levels of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Tonight: A few showers, mostly before midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low of around 64. Weak east-southeast wind. The probability of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall levels of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

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Wednesday: A few showers after noon. Increasing clouds, peaking near 84. Southeasterly winds at a speed of 10 km / h and in the afternoon from the southwest. The probability of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall levels of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Waimea

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Today: a few showers. Mostly sunny, with a peak near 76. Breeze, with a northeast wind around 34 km / h, with gusts of up to 45 km / h. The probability of precipitation is 40%. New levels of precipitation between a tenth and a quarter of an inch are possible.

Tonight: A few showers. Mostly cloudy with a minimum of about 54. Breezes, with an east-northeast wind at about 25 mph, with gusts of up to 35 mph. The probability of precipitation is 40%. New levels of precipitation between a tenth and a quarter of an inch are possible.

Wednesday: A few showers. Mostly sunny, with a high near 76. Windy, with a northeast wind around 23 mph, with gusts of up to 32 mph. The probability of precipitation is 40%. New levels of precipitation between a tenth and a quarter of an inch are possible.

Kohala

THE ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW THE ADVERT

Today: Showers likely, mostly before noon. Mostly cloudy, with a peak near 70. Breeze, with an east-northeast wind around 32 km / h, with gusts up to 45 km / h. The probability of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall levels of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Tonight: Showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low of around 47. Windy, with an easterly wind of around 27 km / h, with gusts of up to 24 km / h. The probability of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall levels of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Wednesday: A few showers. Mostly cloudy, with a peak near 70. Breeze, with an east-northeast wind around 35 km / h, with gusts of up to 50 km / h. The probability of precipitation is 50%. New rainfall levels of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Southern big island

Today: A few showers after noon. Sunny, with a top speed of 85. Windy, with an easterly wind around 24 mph, with gusts of up to 50 km / h. The probability of precipitation is 20%.

Tonight: A few showers. Partly cloudy, with a minimum of about 72. Breezes, with east-northeast winds of 18 to 21 mph, with gusts of up to 42 mph. The probability of precipitation is 20%.

Wednesday: single showers. Mostly sunny, with a high of almost 85. Windy, with east winds of 24 to 42 km / h, with gusts of up to 54 km / h. The probability of precipitation is 20%.

Feedback

Today: Showers likely, mostly before noon. Partly sunny, with highs near 80. North-northeast winds 8 to 21 mph. The probability of precipitation is 60%. New levels of precipitation between a tenth and a quarter of an inch are possible.

Tonight: Showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low of about 60. West-northwest wind with about 13 km / h. The probability of precipitation is 70%. New levels of precipitation between a tenth and a quarter of an inch are possible.

Wednesday: Showers likely, mostly before noon. Mostly cloudy, with a peak near 80. North-northeast wind at a speed of about 23 km / h, with gusts of up to 30 km / h. The probability of precipitation is 60%. New levels of precipitation between a tenth and a quarter of an inch are possible.

Waikoloa

Today: A few showers after noon. Mostly sunny, with a peak near 83. Breeze, with an east-northeast wind of 18 to 35 km / h, with gusts of up to 50 km / h. The probability of precipitation is 20%.

Tonight: A few showers before midnight. Mostly clear, with a low of about 62. Windy, with an easterly wind of about 25 miles per hour, with gusts of up to 35 miles per hour. The probability of precipitation is 20%.

Wednesday: A few showers after noon. Mostly sunny, with a high near 81. Windy, with an east-northeast wind around 24 mph, with gusts up to 54 mph. The probability of precipitation is 20%.

Summary

A broad high pressure ridge north of the island chain is forecast to keep moderate to locally breezy trade winds into the weekend. Passing showers will favor windward and mountainous areas, with short showers over leeward locations possible.

discussion

The long-term weather pattern remains unchanged this morning. By and large, a wide high pressure ridge north of the state will generate moderate to locally breezy trade winds across the region over the weekend. Cooler temperatures at high altitudes (500 mb level) northeast of the islands will keep showers in the forecast for mainly windward and mountainous areas. Shower activity will tend to be higher at night until the early hours of the morning and lower during the daylight hours.
Long-term projections this weekend continue to show an unstable upper low falling into the region from the north. The latest model solutions show the cut low point just northeast of the island chain. This system can increase rainfall from this weekend to early next week. The impact of rainfall depends on how close these unstable low stretches are relative to each island. As the low drifts closer to the upper level of the state, the instability will trigger more precipitation activity. So far, trust in a wetter solution has remained low, as the weather effects can change from island to island with the location of this system over the next four to five days.

aviation

Moderate to locally breezy trades focus on low clouds and showers over the windward areas this morning. AIRMET Sierra for mountain darkening was originally only in effect for Windward Big Island. However, MVFR observations were frequent enough over the windward slopes of the smaller islands to warrant an extension of the AIRMET this morning. Satellite trends suggest that there is likely to be some improvement in the caps over the next few hours, so canceling part or all of the Sierra this morning may be okay. During the forecast period, the areas facing downwind will be the focus of shower activity.

marine

Fresh to strong eastern trades will continue into the second half of the week as the high pressure remains anchored in the north. Later in the week, winds could easily return in a more northeast direction as a wide trough develops far northeast of the area. The Small Craft Advisory, which currently covers the normally windier waters between Maui County and the Big Island, has been extended to Wednesday. The seas will remain rough in these windier areas but should stay below the recommended 10 foot threshold during the week.
Surfing along the south-facing coastlines stays high throughout the week as small, overlapping, long-lasting swells pervade the southern Pacific. The next in line should arrive by Wednesday, then again late in the week that goes into the weekend.
Surfing along the east-facing coastlines will remain rough and choppy due to the onshore trade. Surfing should stay in the small category every day as upstream is limited.
Surfing along the north-facing coastlines will tend to near-flat levels by midweek when the current northwest swell subsides. Expect summery conditions to last through the weekend.

HFO clocks / warnings / notices Ad

Small Craft Advisory until Wednesday 6:00 p.m. HST for Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.

Data courtesy of NOAA.gov

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